Periscope Depth 5/11/2023

Syria Returns To The Arab League
Julian Lark

The Arab League readmitted Syria in a unanimous vote on May 7, 11 years after kicking Damascus out of the group in response to the Assad regime’s bloody crackdown on protesters that kicked off a civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands and sent millions of refugees into the Middle East and beyond.

The move comes five years after the United Arab Emirates began a region-wide trend of normalizing relations with Syria.

After an earthquake in northern Syria and eastern Turkey on Feb. 6, a series of Arab states joined the U.A.E. in normalizing diplomatic relations with the Assad regime. Oman hosted Syrian President Bashar Assad on Feb. 20; Egypt sent its foreign minister to Damascus on Feb. 27; Saudi Arabia hosted Syria’s foreign minister on April 12 in Jeddah; and Tunisia welcomed him on April 17 for a three-day trip to restore diplomatic relations.

Riyadh appears to be the primary driver behind Syria’s regional normalization. Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz invited Syria to the Arab League summit he will host in Jeddah on May 19.

This is an about-face for Saudi Arabia, which previously supported rebel groups fighting the Assad regime. However, after Riyadh normalized relations with Tehran in March, the Saudi government said it would change its approach to Syria. Iran has been a staunch Syrian ally, sending thousands of fighters to support Assad...

Amid Internal, External Threats, Tokayev Seeks To Strengthen Military
Tom Freebairn

Last week, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev outlined his vision for the expansion and development of the Kazakh armed forces, emphasizing the need for modernized equipment and updated doctrines. He called on the defense sector to develop a greater volume of high-precision weapons, drones, combat vehicles and other modern gear. Monthly pay for soldiers is to increase 30 percent. This vision builds on Tokayev’s earlier steps to raise military readiness and capacity, which have become a priority for the new leader.

In power since March 2019 when protests brought down his predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Tokayev has reigned over a turbulent period for Kazakhstan. He responded to initial discontent with arrests and forced dispersals. While the demonstrations subsided, in January 2022 mounting discontent exploded into new demonstrations when the government repealed price caps on fuel. Tokayev doubled down on his heavy-handed response, authorizing police and soldiers to use lethal force, eventually bringing in Russian-led forces under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to crush the protests.

These events, along with Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, drive Tokayev’s emphasis on security and military modernization. Analysts have assessed that the president requested CSTO forces out of concern over the effectiveness and loyalty of the Kazakh security forces. Tokayev is not willing to risk another popular uprising, seeking to ensure that he has a well-equipped and better paid, and loyal, military...

Domestic Defense Industry Takes Priority In Defense Deals
Aja Melville

United Arab Emirates officials say a US$900 million (800 million euro) contract with Airbus for transport helicopters has been canceled. The December 2021 deal for 12 H225M Caracal multirole helicopters was made alongside an order for 80 Rafale fighter jets. Muammar Abdulla Abushehab, the security and industry affairs sector chief for the Tawazun Council, the U.A.E.’s independent governing body that works closely with the defense ministry, cited high lifecycle costs, modular design limitations and a desire to promote domestic industry as the chief reasons for the cancellation. The move reflects a growing trend among arms buyers to ensure domestic defense industry benefits from all purchases.

India and Turkey are two key examples of this trend. Although India remains the world’s largest importer of arms, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set in motion a program to reduce reliance on foreign weapons by 2025. The Make in India initiative has offered incentives for foreign firms to manufacture in India, including tax breaks and subsidies. Accordingly, companies like Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon have established manufacturing facilities in India. New Delhi has a long history of pursuing indigenous weapons programs with mixed results. Several previous efforts to work with foreign firms have collapsed amid corruption allegations. Nevertheless, India was able to reduce arms imports by 11 percent between 2013-2017 and 2018-2022...

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