Periscope Depth 4/27/2023

Wargame Highlights U.S. Weaknesses In Potential Conflict With China
Aja Melville

On April 19, lawmakers from the House select committee on China participated in a wargame simulating the run-up and first days of conflict with China over Taiwan. Based on intelligence suggesting a Chinese commitment to bring the independent island under its control by 2027, by force if necessary, the game tested the ability of the U.S. to deter China or respond in the event of a military attack on Taiwan. The game identified U.S. weaknesses in the diplomatic, economic and military arenas.

Experts from the Center for a New American Security think tank played the red team (China), while lawmakers from the committee played the blue team, whose directive was to “deter a Chinese takeover of Taiwan if possible, defeat it if not”.

The scenario began with opposition lawmakers in Taiwan talking about independence. China responded by imposing “unacceptable” demands on Taiwan, while simultaneously moving invasion forces into position.

China began by imposing a de fact blockade on Taiwan, ratcheting up tensions since Taipei fills more than 60 percent of global semiconductor needs among other high-tech gear...

Czechia Pursues More Arms Sales To Vietnam
Julian Lark

A Czech delegation led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala visited Vietnam, with talks focusing on security and defense industry cooperation. Czech defense firms offer significant experience retrofitting Soviet-era equipment, a key concern for Hanoi, whose inventory is estimated to be 80 percent of Russian origin. At the same time, in part due to Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine and resulting supply chain issues, Vietnam is seeking to diversify its sources for military equipment.

Enhancing the latest discussions is a long relationship between Prague and Hanoi in the defense field. Vietnam ordered a dozen L-39NG light combat aircraft in 2021, with deliveries slated to begin this year. Last week’s talks included the potential to buy additional jets.

A Twitter thread by Vietnam-watcher @AnnQuann noted that Vietnamese forces already carry at least four different Czech firearms, including the CZ 75, CZ 83, CZ Scorpion EVO 3 and CZ 805 BREN.

Sources in the Czech delegation told Reuters that Vietnamese procurement officers discussed buying dual-use radar for civilian and military airports from Omnipol and L-410NG cargo aircraft from its subsidiary, Aircraft Industries; as well as contracting STV Group and Czechoslovak Group to upgrade Vietnamese Soviet-made tanks and armored vehicles with new communication equipment and other technology...

India Turns To UUVs To Bolster Underwater Capabilities
Tom Freebairn

The naval competition in the Pacific garners much attention but to the west, India is embarking on its own naval modernization to keep up with rivals China and Pakistan. Its latest move, targeting naval capabilities as well as the expansion of domestic industry, is a program to build a new extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicle (XLUUV). A defense ministry document made public in March indicated that the navy wanted to procure up to 12 such vessels once testing of a prototype was completed successfully.

Described as similar to the U.S. Navy’s Orca or Russia’s Sarma-D programs, the uncrewed vehicle is expected to weigh less than 300 tons with a length of 164 feet (50 m), making it one of the largest such vessels currently under development. The Indian navy plans to use the XLUUV for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and anti-submarine, anti-surface and mine warfare missions. An initial prototype is anticipated as soon as 2025.

Key requirements include the ability to deploy from a pier, conduct missions in shallow and restricted waters and return to harbor autonomously. It must be capable of transport by motherships and trailers on land. The navy is also considering an external payload of up to 10 tons of armament, potentially including two 533-mm torpedo tubes and a minelaying capability. It should have a maximum submerged speed of at least 8 knots and a cruising speed of 4 knots...

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