Periscope Depth 4/13/2023

Riyadh Pushes New Peace Plan For Yemen
Julian Lark

Saudi Arabia has launched a new effort to bring an end to the eight-year war in Yemen. Houthi rebels have been fighting Yemeni government security forces since 2014, when they drove the internationally backed government from the capital, Sanaa. The rebels have been supported by Iran, while the government is backed by a Saudi-led coalition. Riyadh’s latest peace move, announced on Monday, included an eight-month cease-fire and parallel peace talks that could run for as long as two years.

The proposal came a day after the Saudi delegation to Yemen, Houthi negotiators and Omani mediators met in Sanaa. Saudi officials say that Yemeni government officials support the measure, despite their absence from Sunday’s talks.

The move appears to be part of a wider Saudi diplomatic push in the region, a month after Riyadh and Tehran agreed to normalize relations.

The internationally recognized Yemeni government in Aden has relied on Saudi and Emirati financial and military support. The Saudi-led coalition has blockaded Houthi-controlled ports on the west coast and has forced other goods to transit Saudi territory into Yemen...

Insecure Lukashenko Turns To Russia
Tom Freebairn

On Monday, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko called for greater security guarantees from ally Russia following a meeting with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in Minsk. Lukashenko said that his country needed guarantees that Russia would “protect Belarus as its own territory” in the event of aggression against it. The phrasing sparked renewed concerns about the closeness between the Lukashenko regime and Moscow. In February, several Western news outlets shared an alleged Russian government document that appeared to show that Moscow intended to effectively annex Belarus by 2030. The alleged plans included the deepening of cultural, social and political ties and fostering of pro-Russian sentiments while stifling nationalist and pro-Western voices.

Belarus and Russia have been part of the “Union State” project since 1996, when the two countries agreed to form a political grouping with the eventual goal of confederation. While Russia has pushed to enhance integration, Lukashenko has slowed efforts, emphasizing Belarusian independence. New assimilation initiatives were proposed by Putin in 2018, and in November 2021, Belarus and Russia signed a pact covering 28 new integration measures.

The emergence of massive anti-government protests in 2020 forced Lukashenko to turn to Moscow for political support. Allegations of fraud followed elections that Lukashenko claimed to win, producing nationwide demonstrations that unnerved the authoritarian regime. Despite a brutal crackdown that resulted in many opposition leaders fleeing Belarus or being jailed, the protests appeared to reveal the unpopularity of the Lukashenko regime. Amid the insecurity, Minsk turned to Moscow for support...

Skyrocketing Ammo Demands Challenge U.S. Industry
Aja Melville

U.S. defense firms are sending representatives to Taiwan next month to discuss co-production of military equipment, including drones and ammunition. The move comes as U.S. defense contractors have struggled to to keep up with domestic and export demands for ammunition following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Steven Rudder, a retired commander of U.S. Marine Corps Forces Pacific, will lead the group of around 25 representatives. The delegation will be the first from the U.S. focused on defense industry since 2019. The trip is intended to promote defense industry cooperation. Taipei is primarily interested in aerial, ground and maritime drones and ammunition, U.S. officials said.

The U.S. delegation is targeting opportunities to provide advanced technology and jointly develop drones with Taiwanese firms. Drones are considered a critical capability to help deter a potential invasion by China.

Strict arms export regulations are a potential hurdle, although the Biden administration says it is open to supporting joint efforts should U.S. industry request it. Such co-production with Taiwan is seen as freeing up domestic production for U.S. needs. American industry has been ramping up manufacturing capacity in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but such expansion takes time.

The war in Ukraine has also demonstrated that the U.S. defense industrial base is not adequately prepared to support the demands of a major conflict, experts say. A conflict with China over Taiwan, for example, would likely require munition expenditures greater than current Defense Dept. stockpiles...

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