Periscope Depth 4/6/2023

Russian Cyber Ops Evolve
Julian Lark

While cyberattacks happen at the speed of a click, their reporting, analysis and attribution typically takes far longer. Three recent reports have provided an insight into the general trends of Russia’s cyber operations.

Systema, the Russian investigative unit of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, this week published an analysis of leaked documents outlining cooperation between Russia’s Roskomnadzor internet-policing agency and the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) in 2017 and 2019.

The documents reveal how Russian officials sought to recreate China’s Great Firewall, while Chinese officials sought advice in disrupting political dissent. Systema quoted analysts explaining that 2017 was a major turning point for Roskomnadzor, because it was then that the Kremlin fully committed to pursuing a Chinese-style restricted internet. Two years later, Russia’s internet sovereignty law firmed up Moscow’s repressive approach.

This follows last month’s Wall Street Journal report of a similar partnership between Moscow and Tehran, in which Moscow plays the senior technological partner in exchange for Iranian military supplies...

Experts Question Limited Syria Policy
Tom Freebairn

The U.S Central Command announced on Monday that it had killed senior Islamic State leader Khalid ‘Aydd Ahmad al-Jabouri in Syria. Al-Jabouri allegedly planned ISIS attacks in Europe and developed the leadership structure for the terrorist organization. He was killed by an airstrike possibly near the village of Kefteen in rebel-held northwestern Syria. The U.S. continues to maintain a small contingent in Syria to fight ISIS, but the Biden administration’s policy has largely failed to address the broader issues posed by the divided country.

The war in Ukraine and the Iranian nuclear program have dominated Washington’s foreign policy agenda, leaving little energy for the ongoing quagmire in Syria. In the wake of the normalization of relations with Syria by several Arab states, key U.S. Syria experts and officials warned President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken against neglecting the issue in a letter in late March. The bipartisan signatories included Amb. James Jeffrey, the former U.S. special representative for Syria; Amb. Bill Roebuck, former deputy special envoy to the global coalition to defeat ISIS; Joel Rayburn, former special envoy for Syria; and Jeffrey Feltman, ex-assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs.

Critics say that Biden has not done enough to restrain normalization efforts and should pressure partners to, at a minimum, extract humanitarian and political concessions in exchange. Others have highlighted the Caesar Act, which allows the U.S to sanction individuals or groups that do business with the Assad regime and could be used to penalize those who make deals with Damascus...

U.S. Forces Gain Access To New Philippine Bases
Aja Melville

The Philippines has identified four military bases that U.S. forces will now have access to as part of a 2014 defense agreement. The expanded access was initially made public in February, but the specific bases were only disclosed on Monday. American forces will now be permitted to use nine bases throughout the Philippines as part of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Arrangement (EDCA). The agreement does not permit a permanent U.S. military presence but make the bases available for contingencies. The announcement highlights a renewed commitment by the allies to strengthen defense ties and operational readiness to counter Chinese assertiveness in the region.

The new sites have been identified as Balabac Island in Palawan province in the southwest; Naval Base Camilo Osias in Santa Ana in the northern Cagayan province; Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan; and Camp Melchor Dela Cruz in Gamu in the northern Isabela province. The northernmost provinces are in close proximity to Taiwan, with the Camilo Osias naval base only 310 miles (500 km) from Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s third-largest city. Meanwhile, Balabac is near the disputed Mischief Reef, where China has constructed an artificial island and military facilities.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has shown a receptiveness to strengthening relations with the U.S. after his predecessor’s shift toward closer relations with China. With Beijing’s increasingly aggressive military activity in the South China Sea, including in areas disputed with Manila, the Philippines sees stronger ties with the U.S. as an assurance against Chinese belligerence...

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