Periscope Depth 3/16/2023

Republicans Threaten Intervention Against Mexican Cartels
Tom Freebairn

On March 3, four Americans were caught in the crossfire of a cartel shootout in the border city of Matamoros, Mexico, leading to their abduction. Four days later, the victims were located, with two dead and one injured from gunshots to the leg. The killings led to the deployment of a U.S National Guard and an Army special operations unit on the border and prompted outcry from American leaders. The Scorpion faction of the Gulf Cartel later turned over five men along with a letter of apology, blaming the individual members for the killings. Nonetheless, the damage was done.

U.S leaders swiftly condemned the violence and renewed calls for increased security along the border and in Mexico. On the extreme end, some members of the Republican Party have advocated the use of force against the cartels. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) announced his intention to propose legislation designating cartels as terrorist groups and authorizing the use of military force against them.

His call echoes the sentiments of ex-Attorney General Bill Barr, who penned an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal advocating intervention against “narco-terrorist cartels,” blaming them for the fentanyl epidemic. In the House, Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) were ahead of the game, introducing legislation on Jan. 12 that would authorize the use of military force against the cartels. Former President Trump apparently floated similar ideas while in office.

These proposals seem likely to fail, given the Democratic Party’s majority in the Senate and hold of the White House, but the traction they have gained among GOP hardliners is noteworthy. Although likely posturing, these measures reflect a twofold intention: They convey dissatisfaction to Mexico over its handling of cartel violence and drug-trafficking. In addition, calls to eliminate narco-traffickers play well with segments of the GOP base and signal a tough stance on crime and drugs...

New Drones, Tank Upgrades To Bolster Taiwanese Defenses
Aja Melville

Taiwan seeks to deter Beijing -- which maintains that the island state is rightfully part of mainland China and has not renounced the use of force for unification -- through strategic and cost-effective means. China is significantly larger and has greatly enhanced its combat power over the last two decades. With this confidence, Beijing has increasingly sought to intimidate the democratic island with its growing military capabilities.

In response, Taiwan has been stepping up its military modernization, employing a mix of upgrade programs, weapons imports and domestically developed platforms. The latest developments include plans to upgrade its fleet of aging M60A3 main battle tanks and procure new uncrewed aerial vehicles.

Earlier this month, Jane’s reported that Taiwan planned to modernize its M60A3 tanks, which have been in service since the 1980s. The move is in addition to a 2019 order for 108 M1A2 Abrams tanks from the U.S. The first two were delivered in the U.S. in June 2022 for instructor training. The balance of the order is expected to be handed over starting in 2024.

In the meantime, Taiwan is seeking to upgrade the armor, firepower and electronics of its M60A3s and install a new 1,000-hp engine. The project is seen as a response to Chinese modernization efforts, including recent enhancements to its most advanced tank, the Type 99A (ZTZ-99A).

ICC Begins Probes Into Russian War Crimes
Julian Lark

The decision by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to open cases against two Russians accused of war crimes in Ukraine has brought the international legal system into focus. From state-level responses to Russian aggression and plausible genocide to the individual-level pursuit of justice for war crimes, its successes and failures in Ukraine will shape the future pursuit of justice in wartime and its aftermath.

The ICC cases will reportedly focus on Russian strikes against civilian infrastructure and the abduction of Ukrainian children. The accused will be Russian officials responsible for these crimes, up to and possibly including President Vladimir Putin.

Experts believe that the defendants are likely to evade trial, because they cannot be tried in absentia and Russia is unlikely to surrender them However, as the cases of Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic and former Sudanese President Omar Bashir demonstrate, neither time nor authority are inoculations against The Hague.

If the defendants are ultimately tried, the case will demonstrate the value of evidence collection. Ukraine has been meticulous in investigating tens of thousands of alleged Russian war crimes.