Periscope Depth 3/9/2023

Dear subscriber,

Welcome to Military Periscope’s new Periscope Depth newsletter, a weekly dive into some of the latest developments in defense and military affairs, national security and geopolitics. Every Thursday we will publish a short piece from each of our analysts digging deeper into a recent news story and providing a brief analysis. Click on the headlines below to read the full stories on the Military Periscope website.

We are also working on the Forward Edge newsletter, an overview of the most important stories of the previous week from analysts at Military Periscope and Forecast International. A brief summary will highlight key information, with links to the original story for further reading.

Please let us know what you think of the new format at info@militaryperiscope.com.

Sincerely,
Jeremiah Cushman
Senior Editor
Military Periscope

Saudi Arabia Eyes Spot In British 6th-Gen Fighter Project

On March 1, Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman announced on Twitter that Saudi Arabia had signed a declaration of intent to participate in the U.K.-led Future Combat Air System (FCAS) program during a visit by British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace.

The British Defense Ministry subsequently clarified in a release that Saudi Arabia had not joined the program but had agreed to a partnering feasibility study to determine how the two countries could best work together in the combat air field.

The British-led FCAS, not to be confused with the Franco-German-Spanish program of the same name, brings together Italy and Sweden with the U.K to develop a complete air combat system around the British Tempest fighter concept.

Riyadh is not the first government outside of Europe to seek to join the British FCAS. Japan joined the program in December 2022, combining its F-X project with the Tempest program to develop a sixth-generation fighter system...

The War Beyond Ukraine

Moscow’s war in Ukraine has not remained contained in that country, with a variety of actors conducting attacks within Russia and beyond. Public reporting has identified three types of operators: Anti-Kremlin resistance groups; apparently independent pro-Ukraine operators; and professional Ukrainian special operations forces. While all are in general aligned, their activities can result in different political responses from beyond the combat zone.

As early as Feb. 26, 2022 a loose coalition of Belarusian opposition groups – Bypol, the Community of Railway Workers and Cyber Partisans – began the “Second Railway War” with attacks on railway signals and infrastructure in Belarus that supported the Russian invasion. On Feb. 10, sentencing documents from the Mogilev Regional Court reported that on March 30, 2022, three young men tried to sabotage railway infrastructure. Similar charges were handed down against five Belarusian activists in August 2022.

On Feb. 26, Belarusian partisans claimed an attack on a Russian A-50U airborne warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft used to support Russian strikes against Ukraine. The aircraft was on the ground at an airfield in Machulishchy near Minsk when it was hit by drones. The extent of the damage to the aircraft remains unclear.

Belarusian opposition groups describe their primary motivation as patriotism, including opposition to the Moscow-backed Lukashenko regime in Minsk...

Iran Draws Closer To Nuclear Weapons Capability

The Iranian nuclear program has been one of the most pressing foreign policy concerns in the United States over the past two decades. Following the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) in 2018, it has become a growing headache in Washington as Tehran pursues its nuclear development activities.

In a briefing to lawmakers on Feb. 28, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl said that Tehran has made remarkable progress since the U.S. withdrawal. He estimated that “in 2018 Iran would have taken 12 months to produce a bomb’s worth of fissile material,” while today it would take approximately 12 days. A quarterly International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report revealed that in January inspectors had discovered that Iran had enriched uranium particles up to 83.7 percent purity at its Fordo nuclear site, just shy of the 90 percent needed for weapon-grade uranium.

President Biden has been attempting to renegotiate a settlement with Iran. A resumption of the JCPOA would allow U.S and international observers to closely monitor Tehran’s nuclear program and see the regime pledge to roll back its present nuclear development. In return, the U.S. would reduce the heavy sanctions it has imposed on Iran. Critics call the deal conciliatory and ineffective at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

While talks have been ongoing for months, the sides seem no closer to a deal. President Biden admitted at a rally last year that the deal was “dead.” U.S. support for protests in Iran and Tehran’s provision of combat drones to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine have added new barriers to a potential agreement...