Getting Ahead of Biological Threats

The debate over the origins of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was reignited in late February when the Dept. of Energy shifted its stance as part of an update to a 90-day intelligence review put together for President Joe Biden in 2021. The department was one of four agencies that previously assessed that the pandemic likely had natural origins, though with low confidence. It has now changed its view to supporting the hypothesis that the virus got its start in a lab, again with low confidence. FBI Director Christopher Wray also indicated for the first time that his agency had assessed that the virus had likely originated in a lab incident.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus first appeared in Wuhan in central China, home to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, from which some believe it escaped. The other main theory is that it began in an animal market in Wuhan. Most U.S. agencies have indicated a preference for the latter theory or say they do not know where it started.

Experts have emphasized that intelligence assessments are not scientific conclusions. The summary of the latest update notes that different agencies weigh intelligence reporting and scientific conclusions differently. Where scientific data tends to be made public, intelligence agencies keep their information secret. It remains unclear what new information may have caused the Dept. of Energy to change its assessment.

The damage caused by the virus has been extensive, with some 676 million people infected worldwide. The World Health Organization (WHO) in May 2022 estimated that around 15 million people around the world died from COVID-19 or as a consequence of overwhelmed health systems during the first two years of the pandemic. The virus has left millions more suffering from long-term sickness and continues to infect thousands. The economic effects, from government lockdowns to lost labor due to deaths and illness, have been significant. Accordingly, there is new urgency among governments and health agencies around the world to increase their ability to spot the next deadly outbreak.

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