Holding Back

Since Russia launched its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine almost a year ago, it has been closely monitored for lessons for a similar potential conflict in Asia. Beijing has long denied Taiwan’s right to independence, considering it a historic part of mainland China, and has never renounced the right to use force to bring the island under its control. This echoes Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims that Ukraine is part of Russia and not a real, sovereign state to justify his war.

The ability of the Ukrainian forces to halt Russia’s initial invasion in February 2022 and subsequently roll back many of its gains has led some to reconsider their assumptions about the ability of smaller powers to fend off larger, seemingly more powerful adversaries. In Ukraine, there are two main factors that are expected to determine the outcome: How long Russia can maintain troop levels (and the requisite public support) and production of defense equipment under heavy Western sanctions; and what and how much Western military equipment Kyiv might receive.

The provision of the U.S. High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) last year enabled Ukraine to strike Russian command posts and logistics hubs far behind the front lines, paving the way for its successful autumn offensive.

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