Moscow's Africa Stratagem

Russia has firmly planted its flag in Africa as it seeks to take advantage of various insurgencies and public unhappiness with the West to expand its influence. Moscow has promised security aid and sent mercenaries to support autocratic regimes in a bid for political support and access to resources, particularly as Western sanctions bite. The strategy has seen some success to date but could pose a risk to stability on the continent.

While Russia’s war on Ukraine garners most international attention, Moscow has quietly made inroads in Africa. In Mali, Russia has taken advantage of a pair of coups to build a strong relationship with the ruling military junta. President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta was ousted by the military on Aug. 18, 2020. Special operations Col. Assimi Goïta subsequently seized power on May 24, 2021, ending efforts to return to civilian rule (see Military Periscope’s previous report, “Mali’s Political Turmoil,” for more information). Mali’s relations with former colonial power and longtime security partner, France, rapidly soured, while relations with Russia bloomed.

Mali has been the epicenter of West Africa’s jihadist insurgency since 2012. In 2013, French forces deployed at the request of the Malian government to prevent the takeover of Bamako, the capital, by a coalition of insurgents and jihadists. After successfully pushing back the extremist coalition, French forces launched Operation Barkhane, a multinational effort to dismantle the regional network of jihadist insurgencies in West Africa. French troops deployed to five countries in the region to support local forces and combat militants.

Years of stalled progress, escalating terror attacks and poor governance saw public sentiment turn on Paris. Goïta’s back-to-back coups were the breaking point for bilateral ties and on Feb. 17, 2022, President Emmanuel Macron declared he would withdraw all French troops from Mali. On Aug. 15, the last French soldier left, ending the decade-long mission.

To read more of Military Periscope's latest report, click here.